Quick Take
- The breakthrough didn't require building anything new. Scientists repurposed existing tools to solve a problem they weren't originally designed to address. See how it was built →
- The regions most endangered by extreme heat aren't the ones dominating climate headlines. Explore the threatened regions →
- Predicting exposure is only half of what this system does. The other half is what makes it actually useful for saving species. See the full capabilities →
What if scientists could not only track heat waves but also predict when they would threaten thousands of species? A new study, published in the latest issue of Nature Climate Change, answers this question. It details a fascinating, sustainable, and low-cost approach by a team to protect untold numbers of creatures facing extreme temperatures.
The scientific landscape is full of predictions, but they often project several decades into the future. While this long-term outlook allows for flexibility and manageability, it also limits the immediate usefulness of the predictions. Let’s learn more about this new study and how it repurposed previously established climate prediction tools to foretell future heat waves that affect more than thirty thousand vertebrate species.
(Near) Future Predictions
For the first time, a global early warning system predicts when different species will be endangered by extremely high temperatures. As detailed in the new issue of Nature Climate Change, a group of scientists, ranging from the University at Buffalo College of Arts and Sciences to the Botanical Institute of Barcelona, has teamed up to beat the heat.
They combined forecasts issued in May 2024 from NASA’s GEOS-S2S subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting system with long-term temperature histories. This approach helped the team identify specific periods, extending through February 2025, during which temperatures were high enough to negatively affect more than 3,500 species. Furthermore, experts already consider 1,250 of those species vulnerable or endangered.
Repurposing old data with new insights proved effective. For example, in regions where the researchers predicted dangerously high temperatures between May and June 2024, mantled howler monkeys died in considerable numbers. As the study’s lead, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, said, “Extreme heat waves are occurring faster than traditional conservation cycles can respond. Our early warning system provides the months of lead time that agencies and local communities need to prepare for impacts and act before crises unfold.”
Affected Regions
According to the study’s insights, Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula is a region considerably affected by high temperatures.
©iStock.com/Iren_Key
While Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula was one of the most affected regions, other places around the world showed dangerously high temperature predictions. These included the Congo Basin in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as India, Pakistan, and Western Australia.
Fortunately, the team’s research suggests that each of these regions would have a three-to-five-month warning period before temperatures rose that high. This would allow for the preparation of monitoring programs and more drastic mitigation measures, including shade structures, emergency relocations, and extra water supplies.
Further Insights
The way that the global research team combined data allows for insights beyond likely exposure regions. For one, it also estimates how long species are at risk from high temperatures. Furthermore, the team’s system allows for a triage of sorts—a prioritization framework for determining where intervention to protect vulnerable species is most urgently required. As global temperatures continue to rise and heat extremes become more frequent, systems like the one in the study become increasingly important.
As the study’s lead, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, explained, the team’s system enables a more proactive approach to ecological management and conservation. He said, “Conservation has traditionally been reactive, responding after a crisis has already caused harm. With the ability to anticipate extreme heat months in advance, we can shift toward proactive protection of biodiversity.”
